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We have gone full 'Trump' cycle - Thomas Ng Memo Update 28 Feb 2025

  • Writer: whatsyourtradingangle
    whatsyourtradingangle
  • Mar 3
  • 3 min read

Updated: Mar 6


AI image generator suggested that we just went back to "SQUARE ONE" and more.. no pun intended




On Friday 28 Feb 2025 344pm, I emailed Clients my latest post titled "We have gone full 'Trump' cycle".


Below is the full transcript for your perusal:



'Dear Clients


Hope the new year has been treating you well. It has been a busy and dynamic start to 2025. I was in the midst of drafting a memo on Gold and Bitcoin but soon found myself caught up in​ other even faster-moving market developments.


Gold has continued to track my March 2024 investment memo to Clients (https://tinyurl.com/2etfs1stock), delivering a solid +32% return on the Gold ETF. The other SGX-listed small cap CNMC Goldminer mentioned in the memo is also up a whopping +62% from its March 2024 closing to its recent high point last week.


Within the Precious Metals Complex, the next key assets to watch are the GDX and SLV ETFs - more on this once I complete my updated analysis.


Now, let’s revisit a key excerpt from my December 2024 memo and my message to clients on WhatsApp:

On Wednesday 11 Dec 11.19pm, I emailed Clients my latest post titled 'Buy the Promises, Sell the Execution?' with regards to my views on the world's most important index - the S&P500 Index (aka SPX).The SPX remains on track to reach my target of 6,220, as outlined in my 2nd October memo. The good news is that the "buy-on-dip" strategy remains in place, supported also by the US 6-month positive seasonality & Wall Street's over-enthusiastic narrative that "Trump 2.0 is business and stock market positive".
More importantly, I highlighted that come 2025, Wall Street's current "buy on promises" mentality may give way to "sell on execution" disappointment as policy promises often face real-world challenges. In addition, the current "Trumpflation" narrative also oversimplifies a much more nuanced picture. If my view is on point, we could see a mean reversion event, with equities, USD & Bitcoin correcting from all-time highs while bond prices catch a bid.To get the low-down on the full memo, pls click here: https://tinyurl.com/selltheexecution

We have now gone full "Trump" cycle.


Recent price action across key asset classes confirms my Dec forecast:


S&P500 (SPX), Tesla (TSLA), Bitcoin (IBIT ETF), USD Index (USDx) & 10-year bond yields (TNX) have fully retraced their post-election rallies.


Bond prices (TLT ETF chart not shown) have caught a strong bid, despite recent inflation data being less than ideal.


- Elon Musk, Trump’s unofficial right-hand man - seems more preoccupied with his DOGE department than Tesla itself, leaving TSLA’s fanbase questioning if he truly has time for his EV vision. Tesla stock price broke below USD 300 a few days ago.


- Trump is an ardent supporter of the Crypto Industry and has also recommended a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Bitcoin price broke below USD 80,000 this morning.


- Wall Street's narrative of "Trumpflation" causes bond yields to spike up then but 10-year bond yield has now gone back to square one.


I could continue but I reckon a picture speaks louder than words, and in the case of mine - a Price Chart. Pls click attached Charts 1 to 5 to see how all the above asset classes' price action line up.










So, what’s next?


With post-election euphoria fading, I will be sharing a more detailed market outlook in my next memo, covering key parameters for S&P500 Index, Gold & hopefully Bitcoin. Stay tuned.


Thank you & regards,

Thomas Ng, CMT

Principal Trading Representative

首席股票经纪


Chart source: Tradingview'

 
 
 

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250 North Bridge Road
Raffles City Tower #06-00
Singapore 179101

Email: thomasng@phillip.com.sg

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