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We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand

On 13 Jan 2020, 6.07pm, I emailed my Clients my latest post titled 'We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand'.

Below is the full transcript of my write up:

'Dear Clients

I'm still of the view that US markets still need one final pullback/correction that syncs its market structure with the rest of the world, the only question being how deep or shallow that pullback will be, before the likely continuation of the bull market.

Also with the S&P500 Index (SPX) price action this extended, it appears that we are already in the realm of that low '20%' I spoke of in my 2 Dec post.

(What exactly did I say on 2 Dec? - 'if I'm 80% confident that SPX has a date with lower targets, there still exist that smaller probability of it taking the other route (ie continual rally).' You can read it again here -

However, I risk becoming the proverbial stockmarket’s 'broken clock', ie a broken clock can be right twice a day. If I ask you to wait long enough, the correction will eventually arrive...

Thus when I noted on 2 Jan 2020 that the breakout of the SSECOMP (Shanghai Composite Index) which will likely give tailwind to the Singapore market (explained in my last week’s post), I must at the very least let you know the possibility of such upside potential in STI (Straits Times Index) in the short to intermediate term, rather than being silent to such a development.

As Dr Randy Pausch famously said, ‘We cannot change the cards we are dealt, just how we play the hand’.

So if you are a long term investor who agrees with my outlook for the US, you may still continue to wait for that bigger pullback**. For the shorter term and more nimble folks, this is the short to intermediate hand you have been waiting for.

Oh and one more thing, since my 6 Jan's post on Capitaland, have you seen its Chart yet?

For reference, on 6 Jan it closed 3.80, today (13 Jan) it closed 3.93. A 3.4% return over a week.

**By the way, even if you are a long term investor, you may have taken heed of my repeated calls on

- 1 Sep 2019 to 'do some nibbling of our local blue chips here' -

STI has risen 5.6% since then (using 10 Jan close).

- 2 Sep 2019 where I called SGX-listed HongKongLand as 'Deep value' & 'a bargain' -

HKLand has risen 5.6% since then.

- 30 Sep 2019 to 'deploying about 1/5 to 1/3 of your investible cash into index stocks or the STI ETF itself while leaving about 2/3 as dry powder makes reasonable portfolio positioning' -

STI has risen 4.4% since then.


- 24 Oct 2019 as to 'why you may need to be mentally prepared for a potential shift in bearish tone to a slight bullish bias for emerging markets and/or Asia' -

STI has risen 3.0% since then.

- 18 Jun 2019 for Gold where I said 'once the said resistance zone is taken out authoritatively, don't forget to onboard this gravy train!' -

Gold has risen 16% since then.

If you like this post, pls help me share! Live Long & Trade Well!

Thank you & rdgs

Thomas Ng, CMT

Principal Trading Representative



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