On Monday 20 April 2020 6.25pm, I emailed Clients my latest post titled 'A short note to put my TA into perspective..'
'Below is the full transcript of my write up:
Pls see attached my whatsapp reply to a Client dated late last week.
My message here may add color to my 13 April's TA post titled 'Unprecedented times! Some quick takeaways' (www.thom-ng.com/po…/unprecedented-times-some-quick-takeaways).
For clarity sake, I rephrased slightly the same Whatsapp message here:
From a technical (analysis) assessment, I'm still viewing the current 'rally' from the perspective of a 'bounce'. Price action in US markets is going to meet some strong resistance level soon. The pattern of the next pullback will shed more light.
From a fundamental assessment, market appears now to view the record stimulus (monetary/fiscal/new unorthodox measures) in both US and SG as putting a 'BACKSTOP' to the damage incurred from the COVID situation, with an assumption of a resolution of COVID in 3-6 months.
3-6 mths is my rough estimation.
Thus, if there are hints that it cannot be resolved in that timeframe, I think the mkt is not going to be that forgiving..
Any drugs or vaccine found will of course alter the course of the situation immediately but til then..
If you need further clarification, pls drop me a line.
Live Long & Trade Well!
Thank you & rdgs
Thomas Ng, CMT
Principal Trading Representative