'A Quick Note on Silver - Trading the Laggard Bounce' by Thomas Ng 23 Feb 2026
- whatsyourtradingangle
- 8 hours ago
- 3 min read
On Monday, 23th February 2026 at 10.51pm, I emailed Clients my latest short memo titled "A Quick Note on Silver - Trading the Laggard Bounce", offering key insights on the Precious Metals Complex.
Below is the full transcript for your perusal:
'Dear Clients,
I would like to share a recent case study that underscores the importance of discipline, timing, and risk management - particularly during parabolic market phases.
My quick note to a Client on 29 Jan 2026 (Message reproduced exactly as sent via WhatsApp - see screenshots attached)
“Hi Mr Client, apologies I’m on the road in China at the moment. Regards to your question on Gold, imho, at this level it is considered a very stretched ‘parabolic move’ and I would caution against taking a position at this level. It doesn’t mean it will turn down immediately. But typically we can likely see a sharp and fast turndown occurring after this type of parabolic move. Similar to silver too. Tq”
At that juncture, few advisors were prepared to caution restraint given the strength and persistence of the rally.
On that same evening (29 Jan), Gold and Silver spot prices printed their respective all-time highs at approximately USD 5,599 and USD 121.
Within the next three trading days:
Gold declined approximately 21%
Silver fell approximately 47%
The speed and magnitude of the correction reinforced the risk profile of parabolic advances.
Follow-Up on 3 Feb 2026
On 3 Feb, after the sharp correction, I shared the following on Gold price action with the same Client:
“There shd likely be a nice bounce soon following the huge pullback from the recent parabolic run.”
Since then, Gold has rebounded approximately 9.4%, validating the expectation of a technical recovery phase.
What's NEXT?
Current View: Silver as the Laggard Opportunity in this Bounce
At present, Silver remains the laggard relative to Gold in terms of rebound magnitude.
It is important to emphasise that this is a tactical view. We are positioning to trade a bounce within a corrective phase. It is too early to say whether prices are ready for new all-time highs, although that remains possible. Regardless, I view the current reward-to-risk as favouring the long side.
Silver is historically the more volatile brother of Gold (read "crazy"). Its drawdowns tend to be deeper and its rebounds sharper. As such, position sizing is especially important. Do note that:
This is not a “big positioning” environment
I do not have a crystal ball. Anticipating an important low is one thing; seeing the market actually confirm it is another.
Positions should therefore be scaled prudently and managed actively
Now, in case you asked - if one intended to establish meaningful exposure to precious metals, the appropriate window was earlier - particularly in mid 2024 when I issued my memo recommending allocation into selected precious metals exposures (click here to see the link https://tinyurl.com/2etfs1stock). That positioning was strategic. The current bounce setup is tactical.
Silver Trade Parameters
Upside target zone: USD 93 - 103
Cut-loss level: Below the recent low at USD 71.8
The instrument used for this trade is the iShares Silver Trust ETF (Ticker: SLV), listed on NYSE Arca.
Gold Exposure (For Investors Seeking SGD / USD Settlement)
For Gold exposure via the Singapore Exchange (SGX), the following ETFs may be considered:
GLD (SGD) - Ticker: GSD, SGD-settled
GLD (USD) - Ticker: O87, USD-settled
Conclusions (in layman’s terms):
Parabolic moves tend to reward those who position early - but they often punish late participation.
Following the sharp and sudden sell-off in early February, a technical bounce is likely.
This note is intended strictly as a tactical trade in the Silver ETF, with clearly defined upside targets and cut-loss levels.
Given Silver’s inherently higher volatility, only a small position size should be deployed.
As always, sound risk management and measured allocation remain paramount.
Live Long & Trade Well!
Warm regards,
Thomas Ng, CMT
Principal Trading Representative
首席股票经纪
Chart source: Tradingview'
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