Wake me up when September ends.. (maybe Oct too)
Updated: Sep 8
On Sunday night 6 Sep 2020 11.10pm, I emailed Clients my latest post titled 'Wake me up when September ends.. (maybe Oct too)'.
Below is the full transcript of my write up:
Apologies for the lack of write-ups. Have been superbly busy these 2 months with many queries for the trio of US/HK/SG & the Precious Metals markets.. not to mention trades in A-shares, London, Tokyo, Taiwan, Thailand & Malaysia! So yes the business is as Global as it should be!
Add in my other side & personal projects such as soft-launching my new Weekly Investment Ideas Broadcast Program (more about it in another post) and my kid's P1 registration, you'd know August was a rough one for me.
In any case, I believe that my 10 Aug writeup on the S&P500 Index (SPX) had already clearly laid down what had transpired in the past week, if you bother to read it in detail:
'In one short response, I gave the parameters (again) to watch keenly over the few weeks -
Point 1 - If no breakdown, Bulls continue to hold the ball and SPX3470+/- is my potential bullish pattern implied target (See my 21 July writeup www.thom-ng.com/post/damn-the-world-is-truly-our-oyster).
Nevertheless, we are nearing what I think is the final stretches of the Covid low March rally (due to negative Seasonality effects), traders should be nimble (hello stop loss!) while longer term investors should start considering what to buy in that correction low.
Point 2 - Sustained break down below BB midpt, we have the initial signs of Bears usurping the ball back into their court.'
On 26 Aug, SPX hit my 3470 target with ease and went up a further 100+ points. That's Point 1.
One week later on 3 Sep, SPX sold down hard 3.9% intraday but closed just right at the BB midpoint line.
On 4 Sep, SPX sold down further but lo & behold, it closes again right at the BB (Bollinger Bands) midpoint at 3427. That's collectively Point 2.
So what's next?
Since price action has yet to sustainably break down below the BB midpoint line, I'm going to be a bit more patient with the Bears. But ultimately, annual negative seasonality is upon us and it makes good sense to stay at the sidelines with an elevated VIX (fear index).
On a side note, even though I'm not able to update my views regularly due to my hectic schedule, I strive to answer clients’ queries timely. Pls see my whatsapp replies earlier this past week to clients' Market Outlook queries.
The 2 attached messages also aptly sums up my view for SPX (prior to Thursday selldown) & Straits Times Index ('Big Picture' update).
As for Dr Wealth's article, pls click here - www.drwealth.com/why-investors-are-angry-with-singapore-blue-chips/
. . So yeah, wake me up when September ends.. . Live Long & Trade Well!
Thank you & regards
Thomas Ng, CMT
Principal Trading Representative
Chart: tradingview.com Image source: henglishkettle.ru/wake-me-up-when-september-ends-by-green-day