I was bullish then, but perhaps not bullish enough! - Thomas Ng 16 Nov 2021
Updated: Dec 28, 2021
On Tuesday 16 Nov 2021 2.07pm, I emailed Clients my latest post titled 'I was bullish then, but perhaps not bullish enough!'
Pls find below some excerpts from my latest writeup. More importantly, I shared with my Clients why this type of unabated rally in SPX causes me to have medium-term concerns again:
In my last SPX (S&P500 Index) writeup dated 18 Oct 2021, I mentioned about waiting for price action to pull back to the midpoint of the Bollinger Bands to decipher if the Bulls had simply wrestle the 'ball' over from the Bears. (Ref - https://www.thom-ng.com/post/did-the-bulls-wrestle-the-ball-back-to-their-court)
Well, that did not happen at all. Instead, price action since 18 Oct rallied another 14 days straight to achieve a new all time high at 4718 (see Chart 1 below).
While I have been bullish all this time, I gotta admit I wasn't expecting Mr. Market (SPX) to be this bullish..'
Chart 1 - S&P500 Index, Daily, 5-mth
'..The 'pretty good' news:
I guess what legendary technical analyst Paul Montgomery once said nailed the point, "The most bullish thing the market can do is go up".
A cross reference to other major 3 inter-market indices has also confirmed the Bullish bias (see Chart 2 below):
1) Dow Transports Index (DJT), which initially did not follow thru with SPX's rally to new all time highs between Jun to Sep 2021, has broken to the upside on 2 Nov 2021 & to new ATHs (all time highs), thus confirming the Dow Theory (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dowtheory.asp)..'
'..The 'not so good' news: According to RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com) 6 Nov newsletter describing SPX's price action between 13 Oct to 5 nov 2021 (see vertical orange box in Chart 1), quote unquote:
"..the S&P500 Index has only been down in 2 of the last 18 days. How unusual is that? In the previous 20-years of the S&P 500, the number of times the market accomplished such a feat was precisely ZERO.." .
While I'm still bullish long term (1-2 years), it is exactly this type of unabated rally that causes me to have medium-term concerns again. As SPX accelerates all the way up to touch the upper boundary black trend line (see above Chart 1), it opens up the possibility, albeit a small one at the moment, of a dreadful Chart Pattern taking hold..'
'..Further the CNNmoney Fear & Greed is again climbing to 'Extreme Greed' territory at 83 (out of 100). Can it go higher? It sure can!
For reference, just one month ago it was 'Fear' territory at 32. See Chart 3..'
To get the low-down on the full writeup, pls subscribe to my PATREON channel here: patreon.com/thom_ng
Still undecided with PATREON? To aid you in your decision, pls feel free to check out my track record here!
Thank you & as usual, Live Long & Trade Well!
Thomas Ng, CMT
Principal Trading Representative
Chart source: tradingview