First sign of crack?
Updated: Feb 6, 2021
On Monday 1 Feb 2021 10.55pm, I emailed Clients my latest post titled 'First sign of crack?'.
Hope the first month of 2021 has been awesome to you! . Let's jump straight to see how Mr Market (S&P500 Index) is behaving right now. . From the attached Chart, it seems that the first major crack of the current uptrend may have appeared. As you can see, bullish price action has so far reached about 75% of my original (green) Cup & Handle target of 3969 (or 60% of my Pennant target) since my 14 Dec 2020 writeup first appeared: (Click to see: https://www.thom-ng.com/post/mid-long-term-bullish-but-that-put-call-ratio-reflects-a-crowded-trade)
If a correction does kick off here, a reasonable support zone is at the 3477 - 3627 zone, being the 61.8% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone (not shown). A preferred area of confluence is the 3550 - 3590 support zone (pink rectangular bar) because this is where the original bullish price action took off from. Resistance turned support, so to speak. Also the 3550 level marks a ~8.3% drawdown from SPX all time high of 3870.9 which to me is, well, a garden variety correction. . Now, can it get worse than that? Of course it is possible. Technical Analysis is simply a probabilistic study of crowd behavior and you should always leave 'certainty' at the door. But I reckon let's take it one step at a time. . At the end of the day, I'm net bullish on SPX and it is likely we still have a date with my higher targets (Cup & Handle OR Pennant) as shown on my Chart.
New info added on 6 Feb 12.10pm: As of Friday 5 Feb closing, SPX has achieved a new all time high & price action has crawled back decisively into the upper segment of Bollinger Bands (not shown). The immediate 'crack' is thus negated & the Bulls still have the ball in their court.. . . On 20 Jan 2021, through my bi-weekly Thomas Ng’s Investment Ideas Broadcast Group, I whatsapps the following message to my followers: . 'China Literature (HK:772) - Mkt Cap $8b (note high growth tech firm, still loss-making, no PE nor div yield). China Literature is 57% owned by Tencent and it was spin off from Tencent in 2017 at IPO price of HK$55. It generates its revenue from online reading through its self-owned platform products. You can refer to the Bloomberg article I'm sending next for its growth strategy and how its management plan to monetize their businesses. Since listing, it had continued to grow its revenue at an annualized rate of 46% p.a. Price had since corrected to better match its valuation since its meteoric rise on the 1st day of listing. More recently, since hitting near $70 in Oct '20, its share price had corrected to the support of its weekly chart price channel. With KST still indicating uptrend momentum and %R showing some short-term bullish divergence, investors who wanted to invest into China Lit can consider adding some position into this growing company.' . Since my 20 Jan broadcast on China Literature, it is up 43% from close to high in 7 trading days! (see attached Chart)
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